SARS-CoV-2-epidemic measures to prevent the spread to 2022 is necessary
In Germany, the prohibition of Contact as a measure for containment of the novel Coronavirus expected at least up to the 3 to. May be maintained – even if, in many places, the call for loosening is already getting louder and louder. However, as normality can be restored, and how this might look? Researchers from Harvard University published in the science magazine “Science”, a technical paper, which responds to different scenarios. The “Social Distancing”measures could continue thus for some years.
Rules of Social Distancing until 2022?
There can be a normality after the Shut Down? What happens if all the restrictions are lifted? These questions, a research team from Harvard University to the epidemiologists Edward Goldstein investigated. The experts in the Report “Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period”, the result is that worldwide, all people should still respect up to the year 2022, the rules of social distancing, in order to prevent a renewed pandemic of the Covid-19-exciter. Only in this way a strain on the health systems could be prevented. Unless there is an effective drug or a vaccine to be found in this time.
The second outbreak expected in the Winter
“We have determined that recurrent outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will occur in the Winter, probably after the first, the most severe pandemic wave,” write the researchers. “Additional measures, including an expanded capacity for intensive care and effective drug, could improve the success of an intermittent distancing and a herd immunity accelerate”, so by your assessment.
Without measures quickly epidemic peak reached
The measures, such as output would block or contact block is suddenly lifted, would worsen the pandemic is highly likely, clearly, warn the researchers. Crucial is also the question of how the spread of the novel Coronavirus with the change of changing seasons, but it is. In addition, remain still unclear what immunity develop already infected people. Significantly, the question whether an infection with the common cold virus, the milder corona species form an immune protection against the Covid-19 pathogen was also.
Various scenarios, we calculated
In order to gain new insights, served the US research-based computer-controlled simulations, the calculated, as under different conditions, a pandemic could develop. “Regardless of the post-pandemic transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 measures are urgently needed to combat the ongoing epidemic,” warn the researchers. Therefore, simulations are necessary in different scenarios to calculate.
In addition to strict home and contact a consistent back could block the prosecution of infected groups, and quarantine measures. Experiences were collected in the 2003 Sars-CoV-1 spread. However, this is a hard to achieve single digit scenario, because it is already officially over two million people worldwide with the Virus explain are infected with the researchers. Probably the Virus will, similar to Influenza, a constant companion, and seasonally in the world spread.
In another model, there was an epidemic peak, after 20 weeks have led to the current measures to continue. The Infection increased to the same level, as in the case of an uncontrolled spread. “The social distancing was so effective that practically no population immunity built up,” write the experts to this model. Social Distancing would then have failed of its effect.
Thus, such a scenario does not occur, that would theoretically remain the social distancing measures up to the year 2022 to maintain, conclude the researchers. Only if the capacities in the hospitals would be significantly increased, or a vaccine or drugs for treatment were available, would be the end of the action sooner. However, you can restrict “The development and testing of pharmaceutical therapies and vaccines can take months to years, so that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the only direct means for the containment of the SARS-CoV-2 Transmission.”
Serological testing will be required
In the meantime, serological Tests are needed to understand the extent and the duration of immunity against SARS-CoV-2, to determine the post-pandemic dynamics of the Virus. A sustainable and comprehensive Monitoring will be needed in the short term, to temporarily measures for social distancing to effectively implement, as well as in the long term, in order to assess the possibility of recurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, according to the Report.