School closures, home office, keep your Distance, quarantine: For all these measures, which enlarge the distance between people and the spread of the novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 to reduce, the English term "social distancing" established. How well these arrangements work, estimates a study by the example of Singapore.
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The model study that simulated the Situation in Singapore, comes to the conclusion that a combination of quarantine for infected people and their contacts, school closure, and keep your distance in the workplace would reduce the number of diseases the most.
In the worst scenario, in case of high infection rate and no protective measures, the researchers in the 6-million-city of 1.2 million Infected within 80 days. Depending on the different estimated infectivity of a large part of the clip-on could be added to the social distancing precautions to avoid the creation of:
- If of a low infectivity of the Virus was assumed, would be reduced to the cases according to the model, to 99.3 percent,
- in the case of medium infectivity by 93.0 percent and
- in the case of high contagion rate to 78.2 percent.
The latter example would mean for Singapore, specifically, that instead of the 1.2 million only 258.000 Infected in the should be, it says in the journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases.
The next best Option was in the model, the isolation of patients and contact persons together with job-related measures, followed by quarantine, plus school closure. The least effective quarantine was alone, but all of the scenarios reduced the number of cases more effective, than if no action were taken.
The Journal "The Lancet Infectious Diseases" published study is the first of its kind, the options for early Intervention using simulations examined – Singapore is still at the beginning of the spread. So far, there are only Sick people and their contact-persons under quarantine, as well as the General recommendation, to distance themselves in the workplace. The schools were still closed (as of: 23.03.2020).