Only then Corona-loosening possible: behind Merkel’s 10-day rule

Angela Merkel has made it on the weekend, when from your point of view, the Corona-restrictions can be relaxed: If the doubling of the number of cases ten days. But why is this number so important? FOCUS Online spoke with experts about it.

A week after their introduction to the contact restrictions to contain the Corona of a pandemic in perspective is not a quick end. “We need to have all measures continues unabated,” said government spokesman Steffen Seibert on Monday in Berlin. As long as the spread of the Virus in Germany has not slowed significantly, will present the Federal government has no timetable for a gradual return to normality. Further tightening of the rules are not initially planned but also.

“The daily Numbers of new infections, unfortunately, give us no reason to let up or to loosen the rules,” said Angela Merkel in her weekend Podcast. Chancellery chief Helge Braun (CDU) told the “daily mirror”: “We’re talking now up to 20. April not have any facilities.“

Doubling times to go “in the direction of ten days”

In addition, the Chancellor cited a number that is crucial: The doubling time in the case of the new infections would have to go “in the direction of ten days”. Chancellery Minister brown had spoken of the “ten, twelve or even more days”.

“The doubling time shall designate the number of days in which the number of Infected will double. The shorter this is, the faster the Virus spreads,“ explains Dietrich Rothenbacher, Director of the Institute of epidemiology at Ulm University, and Vice-President of the German society for epidemiology (DGEpi) in an interview with FOCUS Online.

“At the beginning of this was in Germany in a little over two days – now it is over five. There could be a note on the effectiveness of the measures.“ Exactly, you would know that in a few days, because the Numbers happen the actual Infection is always a week or longer lag behind.

The Professor of epidemiology, explains further: “Would, for example, Covid-19 unchecked with the Virus peculiar dynamics in a Population spread, it would result in an exponential increase of Infected and Diseased.” This means that Even if only two out of 100 needed treatment in intensive care, would have exhausted the capacity of very quickly.

“The longer the doubling time, the better it can be necessary action plan. In ten days, doubling time it can be assumed that a certain degree of control of distribution.“

New infections do not need to slow down, so that our System is collapsing

Reinhard Busse, head of the Department of health care Management at the TU Berlin explains: “The ten days are only the first value. Because a doubling of 50,000 to 100,000 cases in absolute terms for the health care system have a lower daily Re-load, as from 100,000 to 200,000 (after 20 days), of 200,000 to 400,000 (after 30 days), or from 400,000 to 800,000 (after 40 days), and so on“.

This means: in Order to keep the load on absolutely the same, would have to stretch the aim of the ten days, then even further – to 20 days, 40 days, et cetera.

Specifically, he expects to get from 50,000 to (only) of 100,000, there cannot be per day more than 5,000 new disabilities. This corresponds approximately to the current number of daily new infections, “we observe, approximately 150 additional patients in the ICU.” The number of patients in intensive care don’t be so set, however, because not all hospitals report their data to the nationwide registry DIVI: “It could be up to 200.”

After about 40 days, our current capacity would be exhausted limit

How long a Patient has to lie on the intensive care unit, according to the buses are also not yet known, there is but a conjecture: “We estimate ten days.” This is an average of the results from the fact that some patients relatively quickly, heirs, and others are for longer than ten days there and recover from the lapse.

“This means that for the 5,000 new krankten of the day about 1,500 to 2,000 are intense schedule days.”

Of the above-mentioned 150 to 200 new patients in intensive care, would be the noisy buses is currently feasible. Also, 3,000 to 4,000 (in the second ten days period) or 6,000 to 8,000 (during the third ten-day period) or just of 12,000 to 16,000 (in the fourth ten-day period). Then the encounter with intensive care beds in our hospitals but the limits of their capacity. Conversely, buses, explains: “If the doubling times are shorter, it’s faster.”

The platform “DIVI-intensive register” there area across Germany, with an Overview of where free capacities are, and what services are possible there. About 12,000 intensive care beds for invasive ventilation would be to back-of-envelope calculations immediately, or quickly for new cases available. The Register is hampered by the fact that only 60 to 70 percent of the clinics for this digital real-time model data.

If intensive care is not enough, it can cost lives

This means that Germany could currently treat about 12,000 people, where Covid-19 would take a severe course,. More people should get sick, would the Doctors, the so-called Triage procedures and on the basis of different criteria to decide who receives life-saving measures, and who is not. This is a scenario to be avoided at any price. With the current output limitations, you tried to make it as long as possible to delay.

The Federal government was directed to pay “on the go”, it was on request by FOCUS Online. You want to wait for in any case eight to twelve days to see what the already agreed cuts in concrete terms. A further requirement for relaxations: In high German government circles, it had welcomed the least, there should be a higher test of capacity than currently, and there is a “gap-free Tracking has to be” the contacts of the Infected is possible. Whether it is a real Tracking, in which the places are recorded, in which the Affected are, or only a “Tracing” – Trace the footsteps of those Infected – has not been discussed in Detail yet.

Wednesday, there is again a Switch between the Chancellor and the Prime Minister, the tips of the Federal government and the countries. Here is the first locker to be discussed, is excluded.

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